Analysis of the Safety of Functioning Gas Pipelines in Terms of the Occurrence of Failures

Abstract

The development of appropriate methods by which to assess the functioning of gas pipelines helps limits the consequences of disasters, in that way protecting users better. Assessment methods of this kind are presented in this paper, which advocates the integrated risk area identification method. The risk taken account of is understood to be a function of the probability or frequency of occurrence of undesirable events, and comes with parameters defining the consequences of these events, should they arise, in terms of their magnitude. The level of system vulnerability to events of these types is a factor considered, and the risk calculation is of a kind that encompasses both quantitative and qualitative aspects. The approach taken is regarded as a quick and simple risk-assessment tool applicable to the daily operation of gas networks for a gas company. Specifically, the framework of the research carried out extends to: (1) Estimation of the average cost of failure of gas pipelines in the case of an urban agglomeration in SE Poland; (2) assessment of the level of integrated risk facing the gas-supply subsystem, by reference to the risk area identification method; (3) failure forecasting by way of regressions with delay; and (4) conclusions regarding failure risk assessment in a gas-supply network, as well as a consideration of prospects. The framework referred here, thus constitutes the basis for both analysis and assessment of the safety of a gas-supply system.