Hotspot Analysis of Structure Fires in Urban Agglomeration: A Case of Nagpur City, India

Abstract

Fire Service is the fundamental civic service to protect citizens from irrecoverable, heavy losses of lives and property. Hotspot analysis of structure fires is essential to estimate people and property at risk. Hotspot analysis for the peak period of last decade, using a GIS-based spatial analyst and statistical techniques through the Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and Getis-Ord Gi* with Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation is performed, revealing fire risk zones at the city ward micro level. Using remote sensing, outputs of hotspot analysis are integrated with the built environment of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) to quantify the accurate built-up areas and population density of identified fire risk zones. KDE delineates 34 wards as hotspots, while Getis-Ord Gi* delineates 17 wards within the KDE hotspot, the central core areas having the highest built-up and population density. A temporal analysis reveals the maximum fires on Thursday during the hot afternoon hours from 12 noon to 5 p.m. The study outputs help decision makers for effective fire prevention and protection by deploying immediate resource allocations and proactive planning reassuring sustainable urban development. Furthermore, updating the requirement of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) to build urban resilient infrastructure in accord with the Smart City Mission.