Microscale Temperature-Humidity Index (THI) Distribution Estimated at the City Scale: A Case Study in Maebashi City, Gunma Prefecture, Japan

Abstract

Global warming and climate change are significantly impacting local climates, causing more intense heat during the summer season, which poses risks to individuals with pre-existing health conditions and negatively affects overall human health. While various studies have examined the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) phenomenon, these studies often focus on small to large geographic regions using low-to-moderate-resolution data, highlighting general thermal trends across large administrative areas. However, there is a growing need for methods that can detect microscale thermal patterns in environments familiar to urban residents, such as streets and alleys. The temperature-humidity index (THI), which incorporates both temperature and humidity data, serves as a critical measure of human-perceived heat. However, few studies have explored microscale THI variations within urban settings and identified potential THI hotspots at a local level where SUHI effects are pronounced. This research aims to address this gap by estimating THI at a finer resolution scale using data from multiple sensor platforms. We developed a model with the random forest algorithm to assess THI trends at a resolution of 0.5 m, utilizing various variables from different sources, including Landsat 8 land surface temperature (LST), unmanned aerial system (UAS)-derived LST, Sentinel-2 NDVI and NDMI, a wind exposure index, solar radiation modeled from aircraft and UAS-derived Digital Surface Models, and vehicle density and building floor area from social big data. Two models were constructed with different variables: Modelnatural, which includes variables related to only natural factors, and Modelmix, which includes all variables, including anthropogenic factors. The two models were compared to reveal how each source contributes to the model development and SUHI effects. The results show significant improvements, as Modelnatural had a fitting R2 = 0.5846, a root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.5936 and a mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.4294. Moreover, when anthropogenic factors were introduced, Modelmix performed even better, with R2 = 0.9638, RMSE = 0.1751, and MAE = 0.1065 (n = 923). This study contributes to the future of microscale SUHI analysis and offers important insights into urban planning and smart city development.