Risk of Cardiovascular Events in Adults Aged 40 to 79 Years with Diagnosed Hypertension, High Cholesterol, and/or Diabetes but Not on Medications: Findings from Nationwide Cross-Sectional Studies

Abstract

Many people with diagnosed hypertension, high cholesterol, and/or diabetes are not receiving drug treatment, partly because they perceive their cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk as low. This study aimed to quantify the risk for future CVD events, either first or recurrent, in people with diagnosed hypertension, high cholesterol, and/or diabetes but not on medications for any of these conditions. Participants aged 40–79 years who had been diagnosed with hypertension, high cholesterol, and/or diabetes but were not on medications were identified from National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys cycles 1999 to 2018. Among them, those with known CVD and those without known CVD but with complete data for estimating their 10-year CVD risk were included in this study. The participants were classified as (1) “high-risk” if they had known CVD or a 10-year predicted CVD risk ≥ 7.5% or (2) “low-risk” if they had a 10-year predicted CVD risk < 7.5%. Of the 5187 participants included, 2201 had known major CVD (n = 490, 9.45%) or a 10-year predicted CVD risk ≥ 7.5% (n = 1711, 32.99%), corresponding to a weighted proportion of 34.83% (95% CI: 33.15 to 36.51%) in the US general population. The proportions of high-risk participants were much higher in the elderly (65.50% for 60–69 years and 97.86% for 70–79 years), males (45.13%), and non-Hispanic Blacks (42.15%) than in others (all p < 0.001). These patterns were consistent across survey cycles during 1999–2018. Additional analyses that classified the participants into groups above or below the treatment threshold (rather than high- or low-risk groups) according to current guidelines yielded similar results. A comparison of the 2201 untreated high-risk participants with other participants who had been diagnosed with hypertension, high cholesterol, and/or diabetes and were on medications for these conditions showed that “lower BMI”, “smaller waist circumference”, and a “non-diabetic” status, among others, were associated with a higher likelihood of “not taking medications”. In conclusion, approximately one-third of the US adults aged 40 to 79 years with diagnosed hypertension, high cholesterol, and/or diabetes but not on medications had known CVD or a 10-year predicted CVD risk ≥ 7.5%, and this proportion was little changed over the past two decades. Interventions targeted at the subgroups with particular characteristics identified in this study may help improve the management of CVD and its risk factors.