Predicting the Continuous Spatiotemporal State of Ground Fire Based on the Expended LSTM Model with Self-Attention Mechanisms

Abstract

Fire spread prediction is a crucial technology for fighting forest fires. Most existing fire spread models focus on making predictions after a specific time, and their predicted performance decreases rapidly in continuous prediction due to error accumulation when using the recursive method. Given that fire spread is a dynamic spatiotemporal process, this study proposes an expanded neural network of long short-term memory based on self-attention (SA-EX-LSTM) to address this issue. The proposed model predicted the combustion image sequence based on wind characteristics. It had two detailed feature transfer paths, temporal memory flow and spatiotemporal memory flow, which assisted the model in learning complete historical fire features as well as possible. Furthermore, self-attention mechanisms were integrated into the model’s forgetting gates, enabling the model to select the important features associated with the increase in fire spread from massive historical fire features. Datasets for model training and testing were derived from nine experimental ground fires. Compared with the state-of-the-art spatiotemporal prediction models, SA-EX-LSTM consistently exhibited the highest predicted performance and stability throughout the continuous prediction process. The experimental results in this paper have the potential to positively impact the application of spatiotemporal prediction models and UAV-based methods in the field of fire spread prediction.