A System Dynamics Approach to Optimize Milk Production in an Industrial Ranch

Abstract

The milk production process on an industrial ranch consists of various and regular activities, with each requiring a proper management approach. Different variables also affect the milk production process, and the maximum milk production is achieved by identifying critical variables. This work was motivated by the Fereidan Ahrar ranch management in Isfahan, Iran, which seeks to identify and optimize important variables to increase milk production. This unit also considers livestock omission due to disease and losses as one of the important issues. This kind of omission is followed by the increased medical costs of the ranch. This paper investigated a system dynamics approach and Vensim software to simulate the milk production process considering the combination of demographic livestock and medical costs. System sensitivity was analyzed using the design of experiment (DOE) technique and some scenarios were proposed to maximize milk production by identifying and tuning important variables affecting milk production. The simulation results of the designed model showed five important variables affecting milk production. These variables include the production cycle rate, voluntary omission rate, change rates of female calves per year that are entered into the life cycle of the ranch, pregnant heifers that become dairy herds after calving, and finally, the effect of the medical costs.