Predictive Models for Aggregate Available Capacity Prediction in Vehicle-to-Grid Applications

Abstract

The integration of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology into smart energy management systems represents a significant advancement in the field of energy suppliers for Industry 4.0. V2G systems enable a bidirectional flow of energy between electric vehicles and the power grid and can provide ancillary services to the grid, such as peak shaving, load balancing, and emergency power supply during power outages, grid faults, or periods of high demand. In this context, reliable prediction of the availability of V2G as an energy source in the grid is fundamental in order to optimize both grid stability and economic returns. This requires both an accurate modeling framework that includes the integration and pre-processing of readily accessible data and a prediction phase over different time horizons for the provision of different time-scale ancillary services. In this research, we propose and compare two data-driven predictive modeling approaches to demonstrate their suitability for dealing with quasi-periodic time series, including those dealing with mobility data, meteorological and calendrical information, and renewable energy generation. These approaches utilize publicly available vehicle tracking data within the floating car data paradigm, information about meteorological conditions, and fuzzy weekend and holiday information to predict the available aggregate capacity with high precision over different time horizons. Two data-driven predictive modeling approaches are then applied to the selected data, and the performance is compared. The first approach is Hankel dynamic mode decomposition with control (HDMDc), a linear state-space representation technique, and the second is long short-term memory (LSTM), a deep learning method based on recurrent nonlinear neural networks. In particular, HDMDc performs well on predictions up to a time horizon of 4 h, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing global dynamics over an entire year of data, including weekends, holidays, and different meteorological conditions. This capability, along with its state-space representation, enables the extraction of relationships among exogenous inputs and target variables. Consequently, HDMDc is applicable to V2G integration in complex environments such as smart grids, which include various energy suppliers, renewable energy sources, buildings, and mobility data.