The Future of Russian Arctic Oil and Gas Projects: Problems of Assessing the Prospects

Abstract

The development of Arctic marine resources is currently the focus of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, which is due to the presence of significant hydrocarbon reserves. However, the decision-making process for implementing offshore oil and gas projects in the Arctic is highly uncertain and requires consideration of many factors. This study presents a comprehensive approach to evaluating the prospects of oil production on the Russian Arctic shelf. It is based on a specific methodology which involves expert forecasting methods. We analyze the current conditions and key factors and indicators, focusing on oil prices and quality of technologies that could influence the decision-making in the oil and gas company concerning Arctic offshore fields’ development. We use general scientific methods—analysis, synthesis, classification and systematization—and propose a method for assessing the prospects of Arctic projects which is based on a three-step algorithm. Together with practical tools presented in the article, it will support decision-making on the project initiation and the development of a particular field.