Structural Evolution of Global Soybean Trade Network and the Implications to China

Abstract

China experiences a serious shortage of soybean supplies and relies heavily on international trade with high vulnerability and large uncertainty, which maybe sows food security risks. It is of great significance to analyze the structural evolution of the global soybean trade network and its implications to China for ensuring food security. This paper constructed a global soybean trade network (GSTN) and analyzed the structural evolutionary characteristics of GSTN from 2000 to 2020 using the complex network analysis method and simulated the impact of targeted destruction on China through scenario analysis. The results showed that GSTN was gradually complex exhibiting a small word and a scale-free network property. The global soybean exporter was dominated by some major soybean-producing countries in America. The US played an important role in maintaining GSTN’s robustness. China was the world’s largest soybean importer; unfortunately, its soybean imports relied heavily on a few countries, and the anti-interference ability of China’s soybean trade tended to decline. Therefore, China’s soybean trade was increasingly vulnerable to being tightly controlled by other countries when some uncertain factors occurred, such as trade frictions and changes in policy decisions from importing and exporting countries. The US and Brazil were key countries with significant soybean trade ties to China. To assess the impact of the two countries on China’s soybean trade, targeted destruction method was used through destroying them in the network. Targeted destruction scenario analysis indicated the two countries played important roles in the anti-interference ability of China’s soybean trade. Brazil played a positive role in China’s control of soybean trade flows, while the US did not. Some policies for China’s soybean production and international trade were proposed. A balance between the domestic production and import of soybean is needed. Optimizing the soybean trade import system and seeking more trade partners is crucial. Improving soybean self-sufficiency is the fundamental way to reduce the high-import dependence. The study provided some insights for coping with international market fluctuations and improving the sustainability of China’s soybean trade.