Assessing Extreme Drought Events and Their Temporal Impact: Before and after the Operation of a Hydropower Plant

Abstract

The probabilistic analysis of streamflow and drought event durations plays a crucial role in the efficient and sustainable management of existing water resources in the region. This approach involves the collection of historical hydrological data from river gauging stations, the use of statistical and probabilistic models, and the assessment of hydrological projections at different return periods to provide valuable information for society to understand the potential impacts of extreme events. The analysis is carried out on the Sinú River in Colombia, with consideration given to both the presence and absence of the Hydropower Plant Urrá I. The results reveal that, under natural conditions, a higher number of return periods correspond to less extreme drought flows and longer temporal durations. However, when the hydropower plant is operational, the occurrence and duration of drought are influenced by the regulations implemented during energy generation. The results of this analysis can guide water resource management policies, considering the operation of the hydroelectric plant, thereby enabling decisions that enhance the resilience and sustainability of the river’s hydrological conditions and communities that depend on it.