Changes in the Level of Premature Mortality in the Polish Population Due to Selected Groups of Cardiovascular Diseases before and during the Pandemic of COVID-19

Abstract

Background. In the years 2020 and 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted Poland’s health care system and caused a high number of excess deaths. After nearly 30 years of continuous dynamic increase in the life expectancy of the Polish population and a decrease in premature mortality that led to a reduction in the health gap between Poland and Western European countries, regrettably, a decline in life expectancy was recorded. For males, the decline amounted to 2.3 years and, for females, to 2.1 years. Aim. The aim of this study was to assess changes in the level of premature mortality due to selected cardiovascular diseases in Poland before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Method. Time trends of deaths of patients under the age of 65 due to ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and aortic aneurysm were analyzed by gender and age groups. The joinpoint model was used in determining time trends. Results. Premature mortality due to all of the cardiovascular diseases analyzed had been declining steadily by about 5% per year since 2008. However, at the end of the second decade of the 21st century, a significant change in the dynamics of the trend was observed, particularly with regard to deaths from ischemic heart disease, which since 2018 caused premature mortality increases of 10% per year in the female population. In the male population, an increase of nearly 20% per year has been observed since 2019. The changes also affected premature mortality due to cerebrovascular disease. Conclusions. After nearly three decades of significant decline in premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Poland, there was a reversal in the trend, in particular as regards ischemic heart disease. The unfavorable changes intensified in the subsequent two years. The simultaneous increase in the number of cardiovascular incidents ending in death and the decline in access to prompt diagnosis and effective treatment may explain the unfavorable changes in the deaths caused by cardiovascular disease and the increase in premature mortality due to cardiovascular disease.