Applying and Evaluating the Modified Method of the Rothermel Model under No-Wind Conditions for Pinus koraiensis Plantations

Abstract

Pinus koraiensis is one of the important tree species in Northeast China. Due to its high pine-needle-oil content and the density of human activities in its habitat, the forest-fire prevention situation is severe in the context of climate change. The rate of surface-fire spread is one of the key indicators for scientifically advancing early fire prevention and is crucial for guiding forest firefighting operations. In this study, we investigated how moisture content, load, and slope impact the surface-fire spread rate using indoor-simulated fire-spread experiments. Furthermore, we analyzed the limitations in the Rothermel model for predicting the surface-fire spread rate in P. koraiensis plantations and proposed modifications to the model by the modification method of priority to no-wind or slope conditions and slope conditions. Additionally, we evaluated the prediction accuracy of the original Rothermel model and two other modified models on the surface-fire spread rate. A high moisture content and low slope demonstrated an absolute inhibitory effect on the rate of surface-fire spread, whereas the promotional effect of a low moisture content and high slope was easily disturbed by the other factors. Under high-slope conditions, an overestimation situation was observed in the Rothermel model. Both of the modification methods involving priority to no-wind or slope conditions and slope conditions could improve this situation. Furthermore, the modification method demonstrated a better improvement effect on the prediction accuracy. Our findings provide valuable insights for refining the Rothermel model and offer guidance for improving the accuracy of predicting fire spread rates and behavior for Pinus koraiensis. This bears immense significance for advancing the understanding and calculation of the ROS of forest fires in the region.