Multivariate Drought Risk Analysis for the Weihe River: Comparison between Parametric and Nonparametric Copula Methods

Author:

Liu Fengping12,Wang Xu1,Chang Yuhu2,Xu Ye1,Zheng Yinan2,Sun Ning2,Li Wei1

Affiliation:

1. MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy and Environmental Systems Optimization, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

2. Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100041, China

Abstract

This study analyzed the multivariate drought risks for the Wei River basin by characterizing the interdependence between the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Both parametric and nonparametric copulas were adopted to quantify the dependence between the SPI and SPEI. The results indicated that the Gaussian copula demonstrated the best fit in most cases, while the nonparametric copula method showed superiority over the parametric models at only one out of eighteen meteorological stations. The joint return periods (TOR, TAND, and TKendall) were computed through copula modeling, providing valuable insights into the co-occurrence of extreme drought events. For the SPI and SPEI with a 50-year return period, the TOR values range from 25.5 to 37.9 years, the TAND values fluctuate between 73.4 and 1233 years, and the TKendall values range from 60.61 to 574.71 years, indicating a high correlation between the SPI and SPEI in the study area. The spatial analysis revealed varying patterns across the basin with some regions more prone to experiencing simultaneous drought conditions characterized by both the SPI and SPEI. Furthermore, our results indicated that the SPEI exhibited more severity in drought characterization than the SPI due to its consideration of temperature effects. The disparities in the spatial features of the SPI and SPEI underscore the importance of incorporating multiple meteorological factors for a comprehensive drought risk analysis. This research contributes to a better understanding of the drought patterns and their joint risks in the Wei River basin, offering valuable information for drought preparedness and water resource management.

Funder

National Natural Science Foundation of China

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Water Science and Technology,Aquatic Science,Geography, Planning and Development,Biochemistry

Reference40 articles.

1. Drought as a natural hazard: Concepts and definitions;Wilhite;Drought: A Global Assessment,2000

2. A review of drought concepts;Mishra;J. Hydrol.,2010

3. McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J., and Kleist, J. (1993, January 17–22). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, CA, USA.

4. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index;J. Clim.,2010

5. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) revisited: Parameter fitting, evapotranspiration models, tools, datasets and drought monitoring;Reig;Int. J. Climatol.,2014

Cited by 1 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3