Climate Change and Inflation in Eastern and Southern Africa

Abstract

This study analyzes the dynamics of key climate change indicators and their implications on food prices in Eastern and Southern African Countries. The study uses descriptive and quantitative analysis of monthly data covering ten countries over the period 2001 to 2020. The descriptive analysis reveals that the sampled countries have experienced various climate change events with increasing intensity in the last two decades. Additionally, three of the countries in the sample ranked in the list of countries most affected by extreme weather events in 2019 are at risk of either frequent events or rare but extraordinary catastrophes. The quantitative analysis showed that supply shocks measured using rainfall amounts and imported food price inflation are the main determinants of food inflation, whereas oil prices, subsidies, and imported inflation are the key determinants of overall inflation. At a macro level, the analysis shows that all countries have various climate change policy initiatives in place but are still vulnerable to climate change risks. This implies a need for sector-specific climate change policy options that are most effective. In addition, the adoption of renewable sources of power such as wind and solar and appropriate irrigation practices is important.