Fleet Deployment Optimization for LNG Shipping Vessels Considering the Influence of Mixed Factors

Abstract

Driven by China’s booming natural gas consumption market, LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) shipping import has grown rapidly. To facilitate scientific and efficient decision making on LNG shipping fleet deployment and the development of the LNG shipping industry, this article proposes an optimization model to minimize annual fleet operating costs, including voyage cost, running cost, and capital cost. Under the consideration of the mixed factors of self-owned and time charter vessels, epidemic prevention and control, port congestion, transportation time cost, and evaporation loss, as well as navigation security and emergency situations, the validity and optimality of the model are demonstrated by the empirical example and the cost comparison between the conventional and optimized solution. The results show that this optimization model can reduce the total cost by 9.87%. Then, through sensitivity analysis, various significant factors affecting the operating costs of LNG shipping enterprises and their degrees of influence are determined. Based on the analysis of the relevant causes, some actionable countermeasures are recommended, including establishing a shipping price reciprocity mechanism and full chain investment planning, optimizing the inbound link to reduce invalid berthing time, strengthening the construction competitiveness and economy of scale of larger LNG ships, and building a combined dual resource pool transportation mode. This paper contributes to improving transregional maritime energy transport and management capacity, while further enhancing the energy security and development of port cities and their economic hinterlands.