Factors Contributing to Fatality and Injury Outcomes of Maritime Accidents: A Comparative Study of Two Accident-Prone Areas

Abstract

Shipping, as an important part of the global supply chain, has always been quite sensitive to maritime accidents. Fatality and injury are important metrics indicating an accident’s severity. Understanding the driving factors of fatality and injury outcomes of maritime accidents can help to improve supply chain security. Based on maritime accident data obtained from the Lloyd’s List Intelligence, this paper identifies accident-prone sea areas through kernel density estimation (KDE) and selects two of the areas to conduct a comparative study on factors contributing to fatality and injury outcomes of maritime accidents through zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) and elastic analysis. The results show that collision and ship age significantly impact the number of fatalities and injuries. Specifically, collision and ship age have greater impacts on fatality and injury outcomes of accidents that occurred in the English Channel and North Sea. Whether the accident occurs in ports and whether the accident causes a total loss have more significant impacts on the fatality and injury outcomes of accidents in the Black Sea and the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The research results can potentially support the reduction of fatalities and injuries in maritime accident and help to manage maritime risk.