A Dynamic Adjustment Model of Cruising Taxicab Fleet Size Combined the Operating and Flied Survey Data

Abstract

Due to the lack of adjustment index systems for taxi fleet sizes in China, this paper used the taxi operating datasets from Ningbo City and established a regression tree model to consider the endogenous indicators that affect taxi fleet sizes. Then, a dynamic adjustment mechanism of taxi fleet sizes was proposed by combining the exogenous and endogenous indicators. The importance of the exogenous and endogenous indicators was sorted using the Delphi method. The threshold value of each indicator was also given. The results indicated that (1) in the three-layer structure of the regression tree model, the mileage utilization had the strongest effect on the fleet size of taxis, and the F statistic was 63.73; followed by the average daily revenue of a single taxi, the average waiting time to catch a single taxi, the average operating time of a single taxi, and the revenue per 100 km. The overall accuracy of the model was found to be valid. (2) When the mileage utilization was less than 0.6179 and the average daily revenue of a single taxi was less than 798.38 Yuan, the fleet size of cruising taxis was surplus and should be reduced by 362 vehicles. (3) When the mileage utilization was more than 0.6774 and the average waiting time to catch a single taxi was more than 259.09 s, the fleet size of cruising taxis was insufficient, and we suggest an increase of 463 taxis.