Spatio-Temporal Nonstationary Effects of Impact Factors on Industrial Land Price in Industrializing Cities of China

Abstract

Industrialization has brought about great differences in industrial development and land use demand among different regions and cities, especially in rapidly industrializing countries with a vast territory. In those areas, implementing local-specific policies on industrial land price is of great significance to improve industrial land use efficiency and facilitate the sustainable development of regional economy. Based on the land pricing monition files of 105 industrializing cities, geographically weighted regression (GWR) was applied to detect the spatial variation of the industrial land price and its main impact factors (for example, tax, leased land, population, and location quotient index) in China in 2009, 2011 and 2014. The results show that the relationships were generally spatio-temporally nonstationary. More specifically, while the effect of tax on industrial land price was significantly positive and spatially stable all over China in 2009, the effect varied spatially in the two later studied years, weakened in North and East China and strengthened in South China. The effect of leased land on industrial land price was generally negative; it was very weak in 2009 and 2011 but became negatively strong in most studied cities in 2014, except for a few cities in Middle China. Population had a significant positive effect on industrial land price in the cities of East and Northeast China. For the three studied years, the location quotient index always had negative effect in Bohai Economic Rim and positive effect in Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone, and the negative effect strengthened with time. Meanwhile, the underlying reasons behind the relationships were further analyzed, showing that the spatio-temporal changes of industrial land price are closely correlated with the population mobility, industrial agglomeration, government intervention and economic situation.