Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of a Dry Cask for Spent Nuclear Fuel

Abstract

Nuclear safety relies to a good extent on thoroughly validated codes. However, code predictions are affected by uncertainties that need to be quantified for a more accurate evaluation of safety margins. In this regard, the present paper proposes a preliminary uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the thermal behavior of a concrete-based dry cask for spent nuclear fuel storage, employing the MELCOR code and a series of MATLAB scripts. As thermal behavior is of utmost importance for the fulfillment of United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) safety requirements, the Peak Cladding Temperature (PCT) has been addressed as the key Figure of Merit (FOM). Variables related to the main heat transfer mechanisms have been selected as input parameters for the uncertainty quantification, whereas heat source and heat sink, namely decay power and external air temperature, have been dealt with in a separate sensitivity analysis. The results show that the selected parameters have a weak influence on the PCT, whereas it is strongly related to the decay power and external air temperature values. In any case, PCT stays below the regulatory threshold even under the considered off-normal conditions.