Risk Identification in Cogeneration (Combined Heat and Power) Projects: A Polish Case Study

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to define the risk factors in cogeneration projects and to demonstrate that a lack of sufficient identification of risks in different phases affects project implementation. A theoretical study is conducted, which aims to identify risk factors in cogeneration projects, based on case studies of such projects in Poland. The study offers a view at CHP (combined heat and power) projects as extremely dependent on the external environment of the organisation. These projects are subject to many external regulations due to their environmental impact and dynamically changing technical aspects. The biggest technical errors occur at the planning and construction stages. The biggest economic and financial risks occur at the execution stage after 2% and 3% of additional design costs occur, respectively. The authors estimated the risks at different stages of the project and concluded that the total cost of failure in correct identification of the risks at the planning stage exceeded PLN 1.5 billion, which amounted to almost 60% of the total additional costs of materialised project risk. Consequently, the biggest challenges in the area of CHP project management at the planning stage are a thorough identification of risks, and the pricing and planning reactions to risk.