A GIS-Based Model for Flood Shelter Locations and Pedestrian Evacuation Scenarios in a Rural Mountain Catchment in Romania

Abstract

Shelter and evacuation-route planning represents the core of safe and efficient flood management. The methodology detailed in the present study includes an analysis of the suitability of areas for evacuation points, as well as an assessment of the degree of accessibility of those points during evacuation scenarios in small mountainous drainage basins. The analysis is based on water distribution and water-flow increase during the historic 2010 flooding of the Sucevița basin, when the discharge increased in merely 40 min. The proposed model considers the viability of pedestrian evacuation of the local population, as well as the degree of accessibility of nearby evacuation points. Thus, according to the results obtained for the mountain-based locality, 91.68% of the vulnerable population can be evacuated in 30 min, while 8.32% of the inhabitants require up to 54 min to reach an evacuation point. In the case of Marginea, located in a plateau area, the population under analysis can reach one of the evacuation points in approximately 36 min. The present study can support the implementation of non-structural flood management measures and decrease casualties through evacuation optimization.