Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans

Abstract

While forecasts of atmospheric variables, and to a lesser degree ocean circulation, are relatively common, the forecast of biogeochemical conditions is still in its infancy. Using a dynamical ocean biogeochemical forecast forced by seasonal forecasts of atmospheric and physical ocean variables, we produce seasonal predictions of chlorophyll concentration at the global scale. Results show significant Anomaly Correlation Coefficients (ACCs) for the majority of regions (11 out of the 12 regions for the 1-month lead forecast). Root mean square errors are smaller (<0.05 µg chlorophyll (chl) L−1) in the Equatorial regions compared to the higher latitudes (range from 0.05 up to 0.13 µg chl L−1). The forecast for all regions except three (North Atlantic, South Pacific and North Indian) are within the Semi-Interquartile Range of the satellite chlorophyll concentration (Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP), 27.9%). This suggests the potential for skillful global biogeochemical forecasts on seasonal timescales of chlorophyll, primary production and harmful algal blooms that could support fisheries management and other applications.