Assessment of Production Performance and Uncertainty in the UBGH2-6 Gas Hydrate Reservoir, Ulleung Basin

Abstract

This study delineates the intricate dynamics of gas hydrate production in the UBGH2-6 reservoir, located in the Ulleung Basin, by deploying a comprehensive simulation model. By integrating a sensitivity analysis with Latin hypercube sampling-based Monte Carlo simulations, we evaluated the influences on gas and water production and explored the underlying uncertainties within this gas hydrate reservoir. The simulation model revealed significant findings, including the production of approximately 440 t of gas and 34,240 t of water, facilitated by a depressurization strategy at 9 MPa for a year. This highlights the pivotal roles of porosity, permeability, and thermal properties in enhancing production rates and influencing hydrate dissociation processes. Sensitivity analysis of 19 parameters provides insights into their impact on production, identifying the key drivers of increased production rates. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis examined 300 reservoir models, utilizing statistical percentiles to quantify uncertainties, projecting a median gas production of approximately 455 t. This study identifies critical factors affecting gas hydrate production and offers valuable insights for future exploration and exploitation strategies, making a significant contribution to the field of gas hydrate research.