Method for Determining the Probability of a Lack of Water Supply to Consumers

Abstract

The water distribution subsystem is the most failing subsystem included in the water supply system. One of the main consequences of water supply failures is the lack of water supply to consumers, which is always very onerous. The paper presents a method of determining the conditional probability that a break in the supply of water to consumers of a certain duration will be caused by a specific type of failure. The result of the work was to identify water supply network failures that result in the longest water supply suspension time. The method was presented on a real water supply system. In order to reduce the incidence of long-term interruptions in water supply, water supply companies should mainly continue replacing gray cast iron pipes with thermoplastic materials. Actions taken to increase the safety of drinking water supply meet the current standards for the safety of drinking water, developed by the World Health Organization and the European Union.