Assessing Present and Future Climate Conditions for Beach Tourism in Jardines del Rey (Cuba)

Abstract

This study assesses, adapting the weather types method, the suitability of the climate in Jardines del Rey (Cuba) for the practice of sun and beach tourism over the period 1991–2014, and the potential future impacts of climate change on this form of tourism on the basis of outputs from the PRECIS-Caribbean Regional Climate Model for the period 2021–2050. The methodology applied makes a classification of daily situations according to the most frequent combinations of climatological variables in tropical areas while focusing on a very specific segment of the tourism market (sun and beach tourism) and taking into account the behaviour of beach users and bioclimatic criteria. The results indicate that the distribution of weather types at the destination during the period 1991–2014 was highly consistent with the monthly distribution of tourists in Cuba, highlighting the existence of a low season from May to October and a high season between November and April. The future scenarios project an improvement in climate conditions for the practice of sun and beach tourism. This improvement is not based on a spectacular increase in favourable weather types compared to unfavourable ones, but rather on a better distribution of both.