Modeling of Stochastic Wind Based on Operational Flight Data Using Karhunen–Loève Expansion Method

Abstract

Wind has a significant influence on the operational flight safety. To quantify the influence of the wind characteristics, a wind series generator is required in simulations. This paper presents a method to model the stochastic wind based on operational flight data using the Karhunen–Loève expansion. The proposed wind model allows us to generate new realizations of wind series, which follow the original statistical characteristics. To improve the accuracy of this wind model, a vine copula is used in this paper to capture the high dimensional dependence among the random variables in the expansions. Besides, the proposed stochastic model based on the Karhunen–Loève expansion is compared with the well-known von Karman turbulence model based on the spectral representation in this paper. Modeling results of turbulence data validate that the Karhunen–Loève expansion and the spectral representation coincide in the stationary process. Furthermore, construction results of the non-stationary wind process from operational flights show that the generated wind series have a good match in the statistical characteristics with the raw data. The proposed stochastic wind model allows us to integrate the new wind series into the Monte Carlo Simulation for quantitative assessments.