Predicting Possible New Links to Future Global Plastic Waste Trade Networks

Abstract

China’s waste plastic ban has sparked a discussion about how the global plastic waste trade (GPWT) will develop in the future. To answer this question, this article uses the link forecasting and QAP method to predict and analyze the possible development trend of the GPWT in the future. The research results show that GPWT has certain stability and sustainability; although plastic waste trade has narrowed under the ban, it still has the potential trend of reconnecting the same type of links. Specifically, from a regional perspective, the future trade of new plastic waste trade will be dominated by cross-regional trade. Plastic waste may continue to flow to countries in the Asian–Pacific, Middle East, and African regions, while European countries will strengthen the internal recycling and processing of plastic waste. From the perspective of the national income level, the establishment of the new relationship will show an evolutionary trend in which high-income countries are dominated and the scale of trade between non-high-income countries expands. In addition, the differences in the level of economic development, liner transport connectivity, and the proportion of mismanagement of plastic waste among countries has a positive effect on the establishment of a new relationship in the GPWT, while tariff rates have an inhibitory effect. In general, the GPWT will still exist in the future, which requires the international community to guide the GPWT to promote the recycling and reuse of plastic waste in a real sense and adjust the unreasonable trade model.