Trend Analysis and Fluctuations of Winter Temperature over Saudi Arabia

Abstract

The aim of this work is to study the variability of winter (monthly mean of DJF) air temperatures in Saudi Arabia. The study of the coefficient of variation (CV) of winter air temperature time series shows that the CV is a function of latitude, decreasing generally gradually from north to south. The highest values of CV during the winter season are mainly because of the migrating extratropical cyclones (Mediterranean cyclones) from west to east, and active subtropical jet, as well as the polar jet. The trend analysis illustrates that all stations have positive trends for the wintertime series. The study of decadal fluctuations in the behavior of winter temperature shows that the period from 1982 to 2010 is characterized in general by negative trend values in most northern stations of Saudi Arabia. In the middle of Saudi Arabia, negative trend values also appear but for the period 1983 to 2003. The southern and middle stations are distinguished by a positive trend during the period from 2003 to 2018.