Multi-Criteria Fuzzy-Stochastic Diffusion Model of Groundwater Control System Selection

Abstract

When considering data and parameters in hydrogeology, there are often questions of uncertainty, vagueness, and imprecision in terms of the quantity of spatial distribution. To overcome such problems, certain data may be subjectively expressed in the form of expert judgment, whereby a heuristic approach and the use of fuzzy logic are required. In this way, decision-making criteria relating to an optimal groundwater control system do not always have a numerical value. Groundwater control scenarios (alternatives) are identified through hydrodynamic modeling of the aquifer, providing an indication of their effectiveness. The paper develops a fuzzy-stochastic multi-criteria decision-making model to deal with a topical problem: selection of the most suitable groundwater control system for an open-cast mine. Both real numerical and linguistic variables are used to express the values of all criteria that affect the final decision. In particular, it should be pointed out that the values of the criteria are varied over a predefined time horizon. For mathematical calculations, fuzzy dynamic TOPSIS and the stochastic diffusion process—geometric Brownian motion—were used. The proposed method is tested in a case study: the selection of an optimal groundwater control system for an open-cast mine.