Affiliation:
1. Electrical Energy Department, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, UFJF, Juiz de Fora 36036-330, Brazil
2. Center for Power and Energy Systems, Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering, Technology and Science, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal
Abstract
This work presents a risk-averse stochastic programming model for the optimal planning of hybrid electrical energy systems (HEES), considering the regulatory policy applied to distribution systems in Brazil. Uncertainties associated with variables related to photovoltaic (PV) generation, load demand, fuel price for diesel generation and electricity tariff are considered, through the definition of scenarios. The conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) metric is used in the optimization problem to consider the consumer’s risk propensity. The model determines the number and type of PV panels, diesel generation, and battery storage capacities, in which the objective is to minimize investment and operating costs over the planning horizon. Case studies involving a large commercial consumer are carried out to evaluate the proposed model. Results showed that under normal conditions only the PV system is viable. The PV/diesel system tends to be viable in adverse hydrological conditions for risk-averse consumers. Under this condition, the PV/battery system is viable for a reduction of 87% in the battery investment cost. An important conclusion is that the risk analysis tool is essential to assist consumers in the decision-making process of investing in HEES.
Funder
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais
Instituto Nacional de Energia Elétrica
Norte Portugal Regional Operational Programme
PORTUGAL 2020 Partnership Agreement
European Regional Development Fund
DECARBONIZE project
Scientific Employment Stimulus Programme from the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
Subject
Energy (miscellaneous),Energy Engineering and Power Technology,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment,Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Control and Optimization,Engineering (miscellaneous),Building and Construction
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