Modeling Climate Effects on Site Productivity of Plantation Grown Jack Pine, Black Spruce, Red Pine, and White Spruce Using Annual/Seasonal Climate Values

Abstract

Site index (SI) is a commonly used measure of forest site productivity and is affected by climate change. Therefore, climate effects on site productivity were analyzed and modeled for jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.), black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.), red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.), and white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) plantations using annual/seasonal values of climate variables. Jack pine and black spruce trees were each sampled from 25 plantations (sites), and red pine and white spruce trees were sampled from 30 and 31 plantations, respectively, from across Ontario, Canada. Stem analysis data collected from 201 jack pine, 211 black spruce, 90 red pine, and 93 white spruce trees were used in this study. To analyze and model climatic effects on site productivity, parameters of the stand height models were expressed in terms of climate variables. A nonlinear mixed-effects modelling approach was applied to fit the stand height models. Climate effects on site productivity was evaluated by predicting stand heights in three areas (the central, eastern/southeastern, and western parts of Ontario) for the period 2021 to 2080 under three emissions trajectories (representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 watts m−2). Climate effects on site productivity depended on tree species and location. For jack pine, climate effects were positive and pronounced only in western Ontario under all emissions scenarios. The effects were negative and mild after breast height age (BHA) 50 in central Ontario for black spruce. Similarly, the effects were negative and more pronounced at all areas after BHA 35 for red pine. On the other hand, for white spruce the effects were negative and highly pronounced from a young age under all scenarios, mainly in the southeast. For all species except for jack pine, climate effects were more pronounced under RCP 8.5 than the other two scenarios.