Conducting a Geographical Information System-Based Multi-Criteria Analysis to Assess the Potential and Location for Offshore Wind Farms in Poland

Abstract

Offshore wind energy is becoming an increasingly important element in the decarbonisation of energy systems. This study aims to estimate the technical potential for offshore wind energy in the Polish exclusive economic zone (EZZ) of the Baltic Sea. Such estimates are necessary to plan the expansion of energy infrastructure. This paper proposes a multi-criteria analysis for the estimation of offshore wind potential and site selection using QGIS software (QGIS Desktop 3.28.6). The criteria include wind velocity, water depth, distance from nature conservation areas, distance from submarine cables and gas pipelines, distance from shipping routes, distance from fishing areas, distance from shipwrecks, and distance from the coastline. The best sites are identified through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results show that the total suitable marine area of 16,218.67 square kilometres can be divided into three parts, in which the highly suitable area for offshore wind farms accounts for 17.55%, the moderately suitable area accounts for 48.56%, and the marginally suitable area accounts for 10.26%. Two different wind turbine placement configurations are being considered, in which wind turbines with a nominal capacity of 15 MW are laid out: 2.5 km and 2 km apart from each other. The corresponding overall electrical capacities only in highly suitable areas equal ca. 9 GW and 15 GW, respectively. If this area is extended to also include the moderately suitable parts, these values increase to ca. 31 GW and 50 GW. The results indicate that the technical potential of offshore wind in the Polish EEZ is significant and should be taken into account when designing the future electricity generation mix.