Geological Disaster Susceptibility Evaluation Using Machine Learning: A Case Study of the Atal Tunnel in Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Tunnels serve as vital arteries in the realm of transportation and infrastructure, facilitating the seamless flow of movement across challenging terrains. With the increasing demand experienced by the traffic network on the Tibetan Plateau, deep-buried, lengthy tunnels have become one of the extremely important types of roads for local residents to pass through. Geological disaster susceptibility mapping by hybrid models has been proven to be an effective means to reduce the losses caused by disasters in a large area. However, there has been relatively little research conducted in tunnel areas with significant human activity. To explore the feasibility of conducting geological disaster susceptibility assessment in tunnel areas, we chose the Atal Tunnel as a study project; as a strategic passageway, this exemplifies the significant geological hurdles encountered on the Tibetan Plateau. Employing multi-source remote sensing data, we meticulously mapped the distribution of geological disasters and identified nine environmental and geological variables pivotal for susceptibility evaluation. We harnessed interpretable ensemble learning models to assess this susceptibility, comparing the efficacy of four distinct models: the weight of evidence method (WoE), the frequency ratio (FR), logistic regression (LR) and the support vector machine (SVM). The precision of our findings was rigorously tested using metrics such as the percentage of disaster area encompassed within each risk level, the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value, and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and all results were highly accurate. Notably, the WoE-LR model achieved superior performance, boasting an impressive accuracy rate of 90.7%. Through model interpretation, we discerned that the alignment of the road line is the most critical determinant in the evaluation of tunnel geological disaster susceptibility, underscoring the high precision of our model. The extension and successful application of this research in plateau areas hold profound implications for sustainable development. Moreover, the practical application of these research findings will provide a practical reference for the design and construction of projects in similar plateau areas, with positive outcomes that extend well beyond the immediate geographical area of the projects.