Fuzzy Set Models for Economic Resilience Estimation

Abstract

(1) Presented models are proposed for analyzing the resilience of an economic system in a framework of a 4 × 6 matrix, the core of which is a balanced scorecard (BSC). Matrix rows present strategic perspectives, matrix columns present strategic maps. (2) Resilience assessment models are based on fuzzy logic and soft computing, combined with systemic-cybernetic approaches to building presented models. The simplest models are Zadeh linguistic variables that describe key performance indicators (KPIs). The BSC model is an acyclic graph with fuzzy links that are calibrated based on special rules. The information obtained during the simulation is aggregated through a matrix aggregate calculator (MAC). (3) The BSC model was used to assess the economic resilience of a small electrical enterprise in Russia, numbering 2000 people with revenue of approximately 100 million euros per year. The BSC model included about 70 KPIs and 200 fuzzy links. Also, the presented MAC model was applied to obtain linguistic classifiers in five basic industries, using the example of a comparative analysis of 82 international industrial companies. (4) The proposed models allow not only to describe the economic system and its external environment, but also solutions aimed at increasing resilience, within the unified framework.