Prediction of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in the First Trimester of Pregnancy Based on Maternal Variables and Pregnancy Biomarkers

Abstract

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a significant health concern with adverse outcomes for both pregnant women and their offspring. Recognizing the need for early intervention, this study aimed to develop an early prediction model for GDM risk assessment during the first trimester. Utilizing a prospective cohort of 4917 pregnant women from the Third Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, the study sought to combine maternal characteristics, obstetric and medical history, and early pregnancy-specific biomarker concentrations into a predictive tool. The primary objective was to create a series of predictive models that could accurately identify women at high risk for developing GDM, thereby facilitating early and targeted interventions. To this end, maternal age, body mass index (BMI), obstetric and medical history, and biomarker concentrations were analyzed and incorporated into five distinct prediction models. The study’s findings revealed that the models varied in effectiveness, with the most comprehensive model combining maternal characteristics, obstetric and medical history, and biomarkers showing the highest potential for early GDM prediction. The current research provides a foundation for future studies to refine and expand upon the predictive models, aiming for even earlier and more accurate detection methods.