Utilization of Personalized Machine-Learning to Screen for Dysglycemia from Ambulatory ECG, toward Noninvasive Blood Glucose Monitoring

Abstract

Blood glucose (BG) monitoring is important for critically ill patients, as poor sugar control has been associated with increased mortality in hospitalized patients. However, constant BG monitoring can be resource-intensive and pose a healthcare burden in clinical practice. In this study, we aimed to develop a personalized machine-learning model to predict dysglycemia from electrocardiogram (ECG) data. We used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database as our source of data and obtained more than 20 ECG records from each included patient during a single hospital admission. We focused on lead II recordings, along with corresponding blood sugar data. We processed the data and used ECG features from each heartbeat as inputs to develop a one-class support vector machine algorithm to predict dysglycemia. The model was able to predict dysglycemia using a single heartbeat with an AUC of 0.92 ± 0.09, a sensitivity of 0.92 ± 0.10, and specificity of 0.84 ± 0.04. After applying 10 s majority voting, the AUC of the model’s dysglycemia prediction increased to 0.97 ± 0.06. This study showed that a personalized machine-learning algorithm can accurately detect dysglycemia from a single-lead ECG.