Computer-Based Prognostic Task Measurements as Indicators of Uncertainty Acceptance

Abstract

There were few studies of individual differences in prognostic decision-making from the psychological point of view; most of them focused on the differences between novices and experts making the prognoses. In this study, we suggested a new task that matched the criteria of a prognostic one, was computerized, and did not require expertise in any field of knowledge. Thus, the proposed method investigated how people processed information and controlled uncertainty in prognostic tasks. On a sample of 78 people aged 17–66, we used a quasi-experimental design to find the patterns of the proposed task parameters and how they correlated with personality and cognitive variables. Five well-known personality questionnaires accessing traits, known to be included in decision-making regulation, were used along with a cognitive abilities test to measure those variables. Two patterns were identified via cluster analysis. Differences in intolerance for uncertainty were demonstrated for the people from two identified clusters. Those patterns could be interpreted as uncertainty control strategies for decision-making grounding in prognostic tasks.