Study on Spatial Effects of Influencing Factors and Zoning Strategies for PM2.5 and CO2 Synergistic Reduction

Abstract

China has identified the synergistic reduction of pollution and carbon emissions as a crit ical component of its environmental protection and climate mitigation efforts. An assessment of this synergy can provide clarity on the strategic management of both air pollution and carbon emissions. Due to the extensive regional differences in China, the spatial effects of influencing factors on this synergy exhibit variation across different provinces. In this study, the reduction indexes of PM2.5 and CO2 were calculated based on their reduction bases, reduction efforts, and reduction stabilities across provinces. Then, the synergistic reduction effect was assessed using an exponential function with the PM2.5 reduction index as the base and the CO2 reduction index as the exponent. Next, the MGWR model was applied in order to analyze the influencing factors of the synergistic reduction effect, considering natural settings, socioeconomic conditions, and external emission impacts. Finally, the k-means clustering method was utilized to classify provinces into different categories based on the degree of impact of each influencing factor. The results indicated that air circulation, vegetation, tertiary industry ratio, and emission reduction efficiency are major impact indicators that have a positive effect. The topography and emissions from neighboring provinces have a statistically significant negative impact. The spatial influences of different factors exhibit a distribution trend characterized by a high-high cluster and a low-low cluster. A total of 31 provinces are divided into three categories, and suggestions on the corresponding category are proposed, to provide a scientific reference to the synergistic reduction of PM2.5 and CO2.