Affiliation:
1. School of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Yoshida-Konoe-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan
Abstract
The transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is known to be overdispersed, meaning that only a fraction of infected cases contributes to super-spreading. While cluster interventions are an effective measure for controlling pandemics due to the viruses’ overdispersed nature, a quantitative assessment of the risk of clustering has yet to be sufficiently presented. Using systematically collected cluster surveillance data for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from June 2020 to June 2021 in Japan, we estimated the activity-dependent risk of clustering in 23 establishment types. The analysis indicated that elderly care facilities, welfare facilities for people with disabilities, and hospitals had the highest risk of clustering, with 4.65 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.43–4.87), 2.99 (2.59–3.46), and 2.00 (1.88–2.12) cluster reports per million event users, respectively. Risks in educational settings were higher overall among older age groups, potentially being affected by activities with close and uncontrollable contact during extracurricular hours. In dining settings, drinking and singing increased the risk by 10- to 70-fold compared with regular eating settings. The comprehensive analysis of the COVID-19 cluster records provides an additional scientific basis for the design of customized interventions.
Funder
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI
Health Care Science Institute
Health and Labor Sciences Research
Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development
Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, Kao Health Science Research
Daikin GAP fund program of Kyoto University
Collaboration Grant from LEBER
Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) SICORP program
RISTEX program for Science of Science, Technology and Innovation Policy
Subject
Virology,Infectious Diseases
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