Modeling the Price of Electric Vehicles as an Element of Promotion of Environmental Safety and Climate Neutrality: Evidence from Poland

Abstract

One of the main threats to ecological safety is the increased emissions of greenhouse gases. Promoting the purchase of electric vehicles and increasing their share among all cars in a given country can be considered as activities reducing the emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere. Based on Environmental Performance Index, in 2021, Poland is in 37th place among the most climate-friendly countries in the world, and 30th among similar countries in Europe. The aim of the article was to model the prices of electric vehicles as one of the elements of promoting climate security in Poland. For the purposes of the study, an analysis of data from electric vehicle sales advertisements on one of the Polish automotive services was carried out. Moreover, on this basis, the most important factors influencing the price of the vehicle were analyzed. For this purpose, forecasting models were built based on neural networks and selected models of decision trees based on the CART algorithm, boosted trees, and random forest. We assessed the developed models and compared their prognostic abilities.