An Electric Vehicle Adoption Model for Nigeria—A Fuzzy MCDA Policy Analysis Tool with Implications for Developing Nations

Abstract

The dominant source of the vehicle fleet in developing nations is the used vehicle market in developed nations. As the automotive fleet in developed nations electrifies, so will the used vehicle market. In many cases, developing nations’ electric infrastructure is inadequate to support significant vehicle electrification. Therefore, there is an immediate need for developing nations to plan and prepare for vehicle electrification before scarcity of fossil fueled vehicles constitutes a national emergency. This research presents the Developing Nations Electric Vehicle Adoption Model (DN-EVAM), a decision support tool designed to help decision makers in developing nations address this challenge. We then use DN-EVAM to analyze the vehicle adoption landscape of Nigeria. First, we survey subject matter experts in Nigeria to identify antecedent and moderating variables relevant to Nigeria. Then we implement DN-EVAM to model the Nigerian vehicle electrification landscape. Finally, we conduct a scenario-based analysis to identify those antecedent and moderating variables most important to vehicle electrification in Nigeria. We find that for Nigerian policy makers, adoption incentives and infrastructure investments are the most critical areas of focus in the near term while investments in technology development are generally not the most attractive option.