An Influencing Factors Analysis of Road Traffic Accidents Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Minimum Discrimination Information Principle

Abstract

Safe traffic is an important part of sustainable transportation. Road traffic accidents lead to a large number of casualties and property losses every year. Current research mainly studies some types of traffic accidents and ignores other types of traffic accidents; therefore, taking various types of road traffic accidents as a whole, an overall study of their influencing factors is urgently needed. To improve road traffic safety, taking various types of road traffic accidents as a whole, this paper analyzes the influencing factors and finds out the causative factors of road traffic accidents. A new index system of road traffic accident influencing factors is constructed based on the existing literature and real traffic data, and their subjective weights and objective weights are obtained by the analytic hierarchy process based on the subjective data and the normalization of the actual traffic data for Yizheng City, Yangzhou, China from January 2020 to December 2020, where the subjective weights are the main weights, and comprehensive weights are obtained by the minimum discrimination information principle correcting the subjective weights with the objective weights. Finally, the global weights, their ranks, and their weight differences are obtained. The main findings are as follows: (1) compared with the real traffic data, experts generally overestimate the impact of road factors on traffic accidents and underestimate the impact of human factors on traffic accidents; (2) in the first-level, human factors and road factors are the causative factors; (3) in the second-level, “motor vehicle drivers’ misconduct”, “road condition”, and “road section” are the causative factors; and (4) in the third-level, “slippery road”, “rain and snow weather”, “intersection”, and “untimely braking” are the causative factors. The research results can provide some scientific basis for improving road traffic safety.