Evaluating Urban Flood Resilience within the Social-Economic-Natural Complex Ecosystem: A Case Study of Cities in the Yangtze River Delta

Abstract

With global climate change and rapid urbanization, it is critical to assess urban flood resilience (UFR) within the social-economic-natural complex ecosystem in dealing with urban flood disasters. This research proposes a conceptual framework based on the PSR-SENCE model for evaluating and exploring trends in urban flood resilience over time, using 27 cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) of China as case studies. For the overall evaluation, a hybrid weighting method, VIKOR, and sensitivity analysis were used. During that time, UFR in the YRD region averaged a moderate level with an upward trend. This distinguishes between the resilience levels and fluctuation trends of provinces and cities. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces all displayed a trend of progressive development; however, Shanghai displayed a completely opposite pattern, mainly because of resilience in the state dimension. During that time, 81.41% of cities exhibited varying, upward trends in urban flood resistance, with few demonstrating inverse changes. Regional, provincial, and city-level implications are proposed for future UFR enhancement. The research contributes to a better understanding of the urban complex ecosystem under flood conditions and provides significant insights for policymakers, urban planners, and practitioners in the YRD region and other similar flood-prone urban areas.