Probability Distributions of Asphalt Pavement Responses and Performance under Random Moving Loads and Pavement Temperature

Abstract

Asphalt pavements are damaged by traffic load repetitions. Conventionally, the allowed number of load repetitions until pavement failure is calculated based on empirical transfer functions from deterministic pavement mechanical responses to performance. However, the mechanical responses and damage to the pavement are uncertain under a random realistic traffic load and pavement temperature. Therefore, the non-deterministic problem—that is, the probability distributions of asphalt pavement responses and performance under random moving loads and pavement temperatures—was investigated in this study. Random factors include the load pressure, vehicle wandering, speed, and temperature inside the asphalt layer. A combination of the response surface and first-order reliability methodologies was recommended to calculate the probability of mechanical responses at any point within the pavement, for reasons of computational efficiency. The accuracy of this method was verified by a Monte-Carlo simulation. Then, the effects of the mean values and standard deviations of the random factors on the probability distributions of the mechanical responses were discussed. Finally, probability distributions of pavement performance (i.e., probability density distributions of cumulative damage for fatigue failure and rutting after repeated random loads) were calculated using transfer functions and the probability distributions of the mechanical responses; thereby, the failure probability of the pavement after a given number of load repetitions was obtained. The results show that the previous deterministic analysis could not fully reflect the random characteristics of pavement mechanical responses under realistic random moving loads, and the mean values and standard deviations of the random factors have significant effects on the probability distributions of mechanical responses and performance. The failure probability of the pavement after a given number of load repetitions can be used as a guide to reliability-based pavement design. This study on the probability distributions of asphalt pavement responses and performance exhibits the potential to understand pavement behavior and could be beneficial as a complement during reliability-based pavement design.