Prediction of Emission Reduction Potential from Road Diesel Vehicles in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) Region, China

Abstract

China has started to focus on the reduction in pollutants from diesel vehicles with high emission intensities in recent years. Therefore, it is essential and valuable to conduct a deep and detailed exploration of the reduction potential from diesel vehicles and compare the abatement effect from different control measures in upcoming decades. This study attempted to estimate the present emissions of four conventional pollutants from diesel vehicles by applying the Computer Program to Calculate Emissions from Road Transport (COPERT) model, and to predict the future emission trends under different scenarios during 2019–2030, taking the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region as the case study area. In addition, we analyzed the emission reduction potential of diesel vehicles and compared the reduction effects from different control measures. The results showed that the CO and NOX emissions from diesel vehicles in this region could increase by 104.8% and 83.9%, respectively, given no any additional control measures adopted over the next decade. The largest emission reduction effect could be achieved under the comprehensive scenario, which means that vehicular diesel emissions in 2030 could decrease by 74.8–94.0% compared to values in 2018. The effect of emission reduction under the emission standards’ upgrade scenario could cause a gradual increase and achieve a 19.8–82.6% reduction for the four pollutants in 2030. Furthermore, the new energy vehicle promotion scenario could achieve a considerable reduction effect. It could also offer better emission reduction effects under the highway to railway scenario for Tianjin and Hebei provinces. The old vehicle elimination scenario could have a considerable reduction effect, but only in the short term. Furthermore, emission reductions could be mainly influenced by heavy diesel trucks. These results can provide scientific support to formulate effective reduction measures to diesel vehicles for policy makers.