Precipitation and Temperature Climatologies over India: A Study with AGCM Large Ensemble Climate Simulations

Abstract

This study investigated the precipitation and temperature climatologies over India from large ensemble (100 members) historical climate simulations in two recent past climate periods (1951–1980 and 1981–2010). The main focus was to statistically examine the usefulness of such large historical climate simulations by discussing (1) the precipitation and temperature climatologies and their distribution patterns, (2) the annual cycle of the temperature and precipitation climatologies, and (3) the frequency distributions and potential spatial patterns of climate variability. We applied empirical orthogonal function to understand the characteristics and normal probability distribution function to investigate the frequency. Results indicated good agreements of these large ensembles simulated results with the observation over Indian region. The precipitation amount over many regions of India is decreased and temperature over entire India is increased in 1981–2010 compared to that in 1951–1980. The annual cycle of the precipitations over India indicated a decrease of the precipitation amounts from June through October, while an increase of precipitation for the months from November through January. The annual cycle of the temperature over India indicated an increase of temperature during July through March. The frequency distributions of monthly precipitations and temperatures indicate an overall decrease of precipitation and an overall increase of temperature in recent climate period. The reason of decreased precipitation in recent climate period is attributed to a decrease of relative humidity and cloud together with weaker vertical velocity over Indian region during 1981–2010. Overall study validates the usefulness of these large ensemble climate simulations for the assessment of climate over India and suggests that these datasets may be used for various purposes related to weather and climate over India.