Environmental Pollution Analysis and Impact Study—A Case Study for the Salton Sea in California

Abstract

A natural experiment conducted on the shrinking Salton Sea, a saline lake in California, showed that each one foot drop in lake elevation resulted in a 2.6% average increase in PM2.5 concentrations. The shrinking has caused the asthma rate continues to increase among children, with one in five children being sent to the emergency department, which is related to asthma. In this paper, several data-driven machine learning (ML) models are developed for forecasting air quality and dust emission to study, evaluate and predict the impacts on human health due to the shrinkage of the sea, such as the Salton Sea. The paper presents an improved long short-term memory (LSTM) model to predict the hourly air quality (O3 and CO) based on air pollutants and weather data in the previous 5 h. According to our experiment results, the model generates a very good R2 score of 0.924 and 0.835 for O3 and CO, respectively. In addition, the paper proposes an ensemble model based on random forest (RF) and gradient boosting (GBoost) algorithms for forecasting hourly PM2.5 and PM10 using the air quality and weather data in the previous 5 h. Furthermore, the paper shares our research results for PM2.5 and PM10 prediction based on the proposed ensemble ML models using satellite remote sensing data. Daily PM2.5 and PM10 concentration maps in 2018 are created to display the regional air pollution density and severity. Finally, the paper reports Artificial Intelligence (AI) based research findings of measuring air pollution impact on asthma prevalence rate of local residents in the Salton Sea region. A stacked ensemble model based on support vector regression (SVR), elastic net regression (ENR), RF and GBoost is developed for asthma prediction with a good R2 score of 0.978.