Risks for Public Health and Social Infrastructure in Russian Arctic under Climate Change and Permafrost Degradation

Abstract

This study analyzes the risks to public health and life quality in the conditions of permafrost degradation caused by the ongoing climate change in the Russian Arctic. There are more than 200 Siberian anthrax cattle burial grounds in the Russian permafrost regions. Permafrost degradation poses the risks of thawing of frozen carcasses of the infected animals and propagation of infectious diseases. Permafrost degradation leads to infiltration of toxic waste in the environment. Such waste contains mercury, which migrates into the rivers and forms methylmercury (MeHg) in fish. Other risks associated with permafrost degradation include damage to the existing social infrastructure (housing, health-care facilities, roads, etc.). Various risks to public well-being that emerge because of permafrost degradation were addressed in this study. Relative hazard indices were developed and calculated to characterize the probability of outbreaks of Siberian anthrax in the future. These indices linked the rates of permafrost degradation and the number of Siberian anthrax cattle burials to the potential hazard of re-emergence of Siberian anthrax among local populations in 70 municipal districts under the ongoing warming. The expected damage to public housing, health-care facilities, and motorways was assessed. Accessibility of health care in various regions of the Russian Arctic was analyzed. The economic costs associated with various scenarios of possible destruction of residential buildings, health-care facilities, and roads built on permafrost were estimated.