Extreme Rainfall Simulations with Changing Resolution of Orography Based on the Yin-He Global Spectrum Model: A Case Study of the Zhengzhou 20·7 Extreme Rainfall Event

Abstract

In recent years, the study of numerical weather prediction (NWP) in complex orographic areas has attracted a great deal of attention. Complex orography plays an important role in the occurrence and development of extreme rainfall events. In this study, the Yin–He Global Spectrum Model (YHGSM) was used, and the wave number truncation method was employed to decompose the orographic data to different resolutions. The obtained orographic data with different resolutions were used to simulate the extreme rainfall in Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China, to discuss the degree of influence and mechanism of the different orographic resolutions on the extreme rainfall. The results show that the simulation results of the YHGSM with high-resolution orography are better than those of the low-resolution orography in terms of the rainfall intensity and range. When the rainfall intensity is higher, the results of the low-resolution orography simulated the rainfall range of big heavy rainfall better. The orography mainly affected the rainfall by affecting the velocity of the updraft, but it had a limited influence on the maximum height that the updraft could reach. A strong updraft is one of the key factors leading to extreme rainfall in Henan Province. When the orographic resolution changes, the sensitivity of the vertical velocity of the updraft to the orographic resolution is the greatest, the sensitivity of the upper-air divergence and low-level vorticity to the orographic resolution is lower than that of the vertical velocity. In conclusion, the high-resolution orography is helpful in improving the model’s prediction of extreme rainfall, and when predicting extreme rainfall in complex orographic areas, forecasters may need to artificially increase rainfall based on model results.