An Observational Analysis of a Persistent Extreme Precipitation Event in the Post-Flood Season over a Tropical Island in China

Abstract

Featuring unique tropical land–sea contrast and mesoscale terrain, Hainan Island in China is endowed with active mesoscale convections of special regional characteristics. Persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPs) during the post-flood season, triggered by multi-scale interactions among mid-latitude and tropical weather systems, exhibit notable mesoscale features, long duration and high rainfall rates with low forecasting performance. This study is motivated by a failure to forecast a PEP in two stages with distinct characteristics and predictabilities, in the post-flood season over Hainan Island on 16–18 October 2020. Based on multiple sources of remote sensing and high-resolution rain gauge records, detailed observational analyses were conducted using a flow decomposition method. Water vapor divergence (WVD) and its three components were used to investigate the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of two stages with distinct characteristics and predictabilities during this PEP. Decomposed moisture components can be used to determine how and to what extent large- and sub-synoptic scale moisture convergence contributes to PEPs in the tropics, under similar synoptic backgrounds. Joint applications of multiple sources of remote sensing data and flow decomposed WVD are proposed to further assist predicting PEPs in terms of rainfall location and evolution.